A superpower
is a state with a leading position in the international system and the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale; it is traditionally considered to be one step higher than a great power. A superpower as "a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon." It was a term first applied in 1944 to the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. Following World War II, the British Empire ceased to exist as its territories became independent, and the Soviet Union and the United States were regarded as the only two superpowers, then engaged in the Cold War.
After the Cold War, the most common belief held is that only the United States fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower, although it is still sometimes argued that the end of the cold war has had little impact on power status, having established the United Nations security council veto as an objective criterion to differentiate between states, and recognizing that veto status has remained unchanged. The People's Republic of China, the European Union, India and Russia are thought to have the potential of achieving superpower status within the 21st century. Others doubt the existence of superpowers in the post Cold War era altogether, stating that today's complex global marketplace and the rising interdependency between the world's nations has made the concept of a superpower an idea of the past and that the world is now multipolar.
The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace (1944), written by William T.R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor. The book spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation. Fox used the word Superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history, which was considered the foremost great power and by 1921, held sway over 25% of the world's population and controlled about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union both proved their newly gained power in World War II. The British Empire emerged from World War II significantly weakened and recognised to have lost its superpower status, while the Soviet Union and the United States were recognised as the sole remaining superpowers.
The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace (1944), written by William T.R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor. The book spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation.Fox used the word Superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history, which was considered the foremost great power and by 1921, held sway over 25% of the world's population and controlled about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union both proved their newly gained power in World War II. The British Empire emerged from World War II significantly weakened and recognised to have lost its superpower status, while the Soviet Union and the United States were recognised as the sole remaining superpowers.
The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace (1944), written by William T.R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor. The book spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation. Fox used the word Superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history, which was considered the foremost great power and by 1921, held sway over 25% of the world's population and controlled about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union both proved their newly gained power in World War II. The British Empire emerged from World War II significantly weakened and recognised to have lost its superpower status, while the Soviet Union and the United States were recognised as the sole remaining superpowers.
The 1956 Suez Crisis made it clear that the British Empire, economically ravaged by two world wars, could no longer compete on an equal footing with the United States and Soviet Union without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts, even while acting in concert with France and Israel. As the majority of World War II was fought far from its national boundaries, the United States did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. During the war, the United States had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.
This map shows two essential global spheres during the Cold War in 1959. Consult the legend on the map for more details.Following the war, most of Europe had aligned either with the United States or the Soviet Union. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the United States and the Soviet Union were the dominant powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like. The two countries opposed each other ideologically, politically, militarily, and economically. The Soviet Union represented the ideology of communism, whilst the United States represented the ideologies of capitalism and democracy. This was reflected in the Warsaw Pact and NATO military alliances, respectively. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world.
The Soviet Union and the United States fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:
The Soviet Union The United States
Political Strong Socialist Republic. Had permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Eastern Europe and the developing world. Strong ties with anti-colonialist movements and labour parties. Strong Capitalist Republic. Permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Western Europe, Latin America, British Commonwealth, and several East Asian countries.
Geographic Largest country in the world, with a land area of 22.27 million km² Third largest country in the world, with an area of approximately 9.6 million km².
Cultural Wielded influence through communist governments and organizations around the world. Rich cultural heritage based around classical music, ballet, literature, theatre, chess. Great ideological soft power until Hungary 1956. Influential in music, TV, films, art, and fashion. Freedom of speech and other guaranteed rights for residents. Wielded influence by supporting right-wing dictatorships in undeveloped countries and democracy in developed countries.
Military Essentially land-based: Largest armed forces in the world,[citation needed] one of the two most powerful air forces, one of the strongest navies. The capability to develop advanced military and space technologies, and the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons for the second half of the Cold War. Unequalled global intelligence network (KGB). Essentially naval-based: World's largest and most powerful navy with amphibic capabilities,[15] bases all over the world, particularly in an incomplete "ring" bordering the Warsaw Pact to the West, South and East. Largest nuclear arsenal in the world during the first half of the Cold War — stationed on its own soil and also in Europe. One of the largest armies in the world, and one of the two most powerful air forces in the world. Powerful military allies in Western Europe (NATO).
Economic Second largest economy in the world. Enormous mineral and energy resources, and large farming areas. Largely self-sufficient. Largest economy in the world. Large resources of minerals, metals, and timber, large and modernized farming industry.
Demographic Had a population of 286.7 million in 1989, the third largest on Earth behind China and India.[16] Had a population of 248.7 million in 1990, at that time the fourth largest on Earth.
The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two superpowers.[citation needed] Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.[citation needed]
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States, as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term, coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power.
Other International Relations theorists, such as Henry Kissinger, theorize that because the threat of the Soviet Union no longer exists to formerly American-dominated regions such as Japan and Western Europe, American influence is only declining since the end of the Cold War, because such regions no longer need protection or have necessarily similar foreign policies as the United States.
Recognition of earlier superpowersThere have been attempts to apply the term superpower retrospectively, to a variety of past entities such as the Persian Empire, Roman Empire,and the Spanish Empire. Recognition by historians of these older states as superpowers may focus on various superlative traits exhibited by them. For example, at its peak the Spanish empire was among the largest the world had ever seen.
Characteristics
Military assets such as a Nimitz class aircraft carrier are a means of power projection on a global scale—one hallmark of a superpower.The criteria of a superpower are not clearly defined and as a consequence they may differ between sources.
According to Lyman Miller, "The basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural (or what political scientist Joseph Nye has termed “soft”).
In the opinion of Kim Richard Nossal of McMaster University, "generally this term was used to signify a political community that occupied a continental-sized landmass, had a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a superordinate economic capacity (again, relative to others), including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; enjoyed a high degree of non-dependence on international intercourse; and, most importantly, had a well-developed nuclear capacity (eventually normally defined as second-strike capability)."
Former Indian National Security Advisor Jyotindra Nath Dixit has also described the characteristics of Superpowers. In his view, "first, the state or the nation concerned should have sizable territorial presence in terms of the size of the population. Secondly, such a state should have high levels of domestic cohesion, clear sense of national identity and stable administration based on strong legal and institutional arrangements. Thirdly, the state concerned should be economically well to do and should be endowed with food security and natural resources, particularly energy resources and infrastructural resources in terms of minerals and metals. Such a state should have a strong industrial base backed by productive capacities and technological knowledge. Then the state concerned should have military capacities, particularly nuclear and missile weapons capabilities at least comparable to, if not of higher levels than other countries which may have similar capacities."
In the opinion of Professor Paul Dukes, "a superpower must be able to conduct a global strategy including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology". Although, "many modifications may be made to this basic definition".
According to Professor June Teufel Dreyer, "A superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally."
Post Cold War
Potential superpowers
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People's Republic of China
Republic of India
European Union
Russian Federation
Academics predict the possible rise of new superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning four possible superpower candidates. Whether Russia, the People's Republic of China, India or the European Union will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The record of such predictions has not been perfect. For example in the 1980s some commentators thought Japan would become a superpower, due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time.
European Union
The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics.The power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week). On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gainsPeople's Republic of China
The People's Republic of China
receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario," "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time." Though in late 2007, China's economic power 'shrank' when the World Bank reported that they had overestimated China's economy by about 40%. The findings meant that China would not become the world's biggest economy as soon as some had forecast, and that China was poorer than estimated.
Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high; this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower. Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.
India
Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.[59][60][61] With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007 Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.
"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars."
India's strength lies in its demographics; More than 50% of India's population is under 25. Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the RBI and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population." A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China. Other factors contributing to India's emergence as a superpower include democracy and its status as a nuclear power.
Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that
"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".
China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.
Russian Federation
Russia is suggested as a potential candidate for re-achieving superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy, energy superpower status and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense" (Rosefielde 2005:1). Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom" (Rosefielde 2005:9).
In May 2007, the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation held special hearings devoted to Russia. They came to the conclusion that Russia is returning to the international arena as an influential political and economic power. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, said: "Russia has restored its position of a large political and economic force recently", also adding that "Russia’s strengthening has been accompanied by a cool down in its relations with the U.S." Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West "has few instruments of influence on Russia left."
Alexander Golts of the St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.
Barry Buzan, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, argued in a report written in 2004 that it is unlikely Russia will attain superpower status in the near future. He states:
Russia is the least likely candidate for (re)promotion to superpower. Indeed, it remains a plausible candidate for further demotion into the ranks of big regional powers alongside India and Brazil. To achieve promotion back to superpower status would require Russia to stage a miraculous across-the-board recovery from the very severe economic, political and status shrinkage that followed from the implosion of the Soviet Union...Russia's problem is the huge disjuncture between its status needs and its economic and military weakness. Except for nuclear weapons, the massive military legacy from the Soviet Union has largely decayed...Aside from its nuclear weapons, and its enormous political geography, Russia does not really have the material capability to sustain even its great power status, which is consequentially something given by its peers than taken by right...Therefore, and even though its position has improved a bit since the nadir of the 1990s, Russia is too weak to bid for superpower status during the foreseeable future.
However, In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States". Russia's military strength has risen substantially under President Putin, having recently produced the worlds most powerful conventional bomb and the worlds most advanced anti-ballistic missile system to date. Additionally, its forces are currently in the midst of a $189 billion ($302 billion PPP) modernization plan. Russia's defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, said that he wanted to exceed the Soviet army in combat readiness.
Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing
